NPP Delegates Prefer Bawumia To Lead Them – Election 2024 Survey
The vice president of Ghana, Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia has a high tendency to triumph in the forthcoming New Patriotic Party(NPP) presidential primaries to be the flag bearer in 2024 general elections as he is the most favourable candidate within the delegates.
This was achieved within the delegates based analyses conducted by Outcomes International Ghana and also the Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SAID) – UK. These two organizations collaborated and conducted a month-long survey starting around 15th November, 2022 and ended in 15th December 2022.
The survey also showed that approximately 90% of the delegates trust that a candidate’s belief does not matter to them when deciding who to be their flag-bearer. The survey was was conducted all over the 16 regions in the country using an approximately 197,000 NPP’s polling station executives (PSEs) as the reference population.
How The Research Was Conducted – Get The Full Details Below
Irrespective of the existing economic hardships caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and also the Russian-Ukraine war, the ruling party (NPP) still persist as a major political force in the forthcoming 2024 general elections.Ghana is a developing democratic nation viewed as an ideal example for nations in the sub-Saharan region of Africa. There are numerous political organizations in the nation, however the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) are the most popular parties.
One of the most dominant political contents in the mass media currently is the question, “who will be NPP’s flag-bearer for the next year’s general election?” The people who are mandated to elect the flag-bearer are NPP’s delegates, which consist of the party’s polling station executives, regional executives, national executives, and also the party’s members of parliament among others.
The one who comes forth as the presidential candidate is very critical as they are key in determining the bearing and developmental agenda for the nation when they later become the president.
A number of prospective candidates have so far been noticed which include Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia, the existing vice president of Ghana, Hon. Kennedy Agyapong ,a member of parliament and a businessman, Hon. Alan Kyerematen, a former trade minister, Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto, a former agriculture minister, Hon. Boakye Agyarko, a former energy minster, and Mr. Kwabena Agyapong, a former secretary general for the NPP.
Other prospective candidates include Hon. Joe Gartey, a member of parliament and also a former minister of state, Hon. Francis Addai Nimo, a former member of parliament, Hon. Dr.Kofi Konadu Apraku, a former member of parliament and minister of state, and Mr. Kwadwo Nsafoah Poku, an energy expert.
Given the relevance of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential candidate election, the Outcomes International Ghana and the Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SAID) UK collaborated and conducted a survey to know the one who has the presumptive chance of winning the upcoming presidential candidate election.
For instance, how ethnicity or geography and religion affect the chances of the prospective candidate winning, and also on what basis is the candidate suitable for the position?
This study was done in the 16 regions using the estimated 197,000 NPP polling station executives (PSEs) as the target population. Participants were selected using multistage probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) technique with absolute stratification.
Sub-samples were taken in three stages: The first stage was the constituencies in the region were the primary sampling units (PSUs), the second stage was the sampling units of the electoral areas in the selected constituencies and the third stage was the sampling unit of NPP polling station executives. These data were primarily attained through the computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) technology between 15th November 2022 and 15th December,2022.
Based on the results 94.9% confidence level and 2.1% variance of the sample size 6000 PSEs were used.
However, from the 96 constituencies 5641 PSEs were successfully interrogated in response rate of 94%. The highest region recorded was Greater Accra region, the PSEs interviewed were 1142 followed by the Ashanti region who had 869 corresponding to 20% and 15.5% respectively. More than half of the PSEs who took part in the survey were the Akan, 3056 PSEs making about 54% and 48% were non-Akan, thus 2585 PSEs. In the aspect of religious diversities, the Christians took the greater part which was 78% PSEs and 20.6% were Muslims.
The figure below shows the results obtained for the interrogations on which prospective candidates would elect if the elections were held today.
The most desired candidate for the NPP’s position within the PSEs is Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leading in all the 16 reigions as shown in the figure above.
Also the nearest contestants to the vice president were Mr. Alan Kyeremanten and Hon. Kennedy Agyapong. Also it is worth noting that some individuals in the PSEs about 12.3% implied that they have not yet made their decision on whom to vote for, but the tendency for that to change the outcome is insignificant.
Also the ethnicity or the religious background was not seen to have a portentous appearance on the PSEs choice of voting. In fact 9 out 10 (86.5%) PSEs believed that a candidates religious association has got nothing to do with them when deciding on whom to be their flag-bearer
The ultimate reasons for evaluating a candidate’s suitability for the flag bearership by PSEs include the vision of the candidate for the party (58% chose this as the first choice or second choice), the vision of the candidate for the country (about 40.48% also chose this as first or second choice) and the dedication of the candidate to the party ( 32.52% picked this as first or second choice).
Other salient basis for evaluating the candidates were the perceived competence, humility, personality, sincerity, marketability and the effort the candidate brings to uplift the party.
The research was collaboratively published by the Center for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SADI) – UK and The Outcomes International Ghana.
Extra details can be acquired from The Outcomes International Ghana or C-SADI.